RandomThoughts

At long last, 2010 will most definitely be the year of the smartphone. No, really–I’m serious! I mean, sure–the experts thought 2009 would be “the year” and maybe it was a little. But it wasn’t for me. And that’s what I’m talking about. Okay, well–perhaps that’s not totally true either as I technically procured my first smartphone, a pre-owned Palm Centro, but after blocking all data services (simply because I wasn’t ready to pay for them), I’m not sure we can really truly accurately call that having a smartphone. It’s more like just having a cell phone and PDA combined into one nice little (compact) package. A smartphone is a phone…but smarter. Right? Or maybe it’s supposed to make the user seem smarter. I dunno about all of that–but I do know this: from the perspective of smartphones–this year is gonna be awesome!

First off, we’ve got Verizon rolling out the nation’s first usable 4G network, all based on a new technology dubbed ‘Long Term Evolution,’ (but you can call it LTE for short). Right now there aren’t really any mainstream phones that support this tech, but you can be sure Verizon won’t leave the ocean dry for long. Phones from all sorts of places (maybe even Google itself) will be jumping on the LTE bandwaggon very quickly. Not only will this be a completely IP-based network (which is good for a number of reasons), it will sport enough bandwidth to make you have a heart attack, provide better, more complete, and more reliable coverage in each of its deployment zones, and it’ll make AT&T’s network feel like the party-lines from last century. Basically–it’ll knock your socks off. ‘Nuff said.

Now, I wouldn’t hold off buying a phone just because I felt the need to wait for LTE compatible hardware. It’s going to take time to completely cover North America with the new service, but at least it’ll be easier and more efficient to do so.

So what about the phones?

Okay, you’re right–I got off on a little bit of a tangent there, but it’s important information, you must agree. What I really want to focus on is this: what’s next for smartphones in 2010? Well, lots–let’s look at it from an OS perspective and then summarize at the end.

Apple

People were interested in smartphones long before the iPhone hit the market in 2007, but you have to admit that they really did something to enhance the everyday consumer’s understanding and expectations of what a smartphone can and should do. It also spurred a lot of other manufacturers into realizing that there were plenty of new things to be done with smartphones and that there was a danger of being left behind in a hurry. Obviously the iPhone hasn’tcompletely dominated because Blackberry still holds a considerably large marketshare, but it did give almost everyone a big kick in the pants.

So what’s next for the illustrious iPhone? Well, I highly doubt we’ll see a 4G version of this before 2011 when AT&T really begins to roll out a nationwide 4G network, and since the current iPhone is already HSPA+ compatible, there isn’t a huge reason to even release a new device. That said, it’s ludicrous to assume that Apple will sit idly by while Google makes big movies. I think we’ll see a refresh of the iPhone 3Gs with some updated hardware like a faster CPU, support for 802.11n, a new graphics chip, better battery, and so on. My bet is that there will be a new iPhone OS to go along with this–probably something akin to a 3.5 release, but Apple’s versioning standards are so crazy that they might just call it iPhone OS 4.

I think two much larger questions are currently on people’s minds: first, will Apple end their exclusitivity with AT&T (whether by choice or forced by the FCC) and second, if the first does occur, will Apple bring an iPhone to Verizon?

The first is quite possible–perhaps even likely. The second I think is much more far-fetched. Verizon has shown that it sees Apple as something more along the lines of a direct competitor and doesn’t seem to interested in it’s phones. More on that later…

Google

Even though they’re just launching their first phone, Google has been a huge player in the mobile space for awhile. Android is really starting to take off with the advent of two Android-powered phones on Verizon’s network in 2009 alone. We’ll definitely see some awesome new Android phones coming to Verizon in 2010–also T-Mobile will get an actual Google-branded phone and we’re seeing Sprint and AT&T adding Google to their lineups as well. Many analysts expect Android to take the #1 smartphone OS position by 2012, but I think they’ll reach that status at least a year sooner.

I like Android for several reasons. First, I have a choice of devices. If I don’t like the HTC Droid Eris, I can go with the Motorola Droid–or even pick a different carrier and grab the T-Mobile G1. There are Android choices on any network in a decent number of combinations. Second, the OS is based on open-source Linux. Any carrier can modify the OS to suit their needs, add a different UI, or pre-install additional apps or features. This makes Android a very versatile player in the market and it really can become unique to the person using it. Third, it comes ready for traditional enterprise features. Exchange support is built in, data can be stored in the cloud, and it readily connects to Google-based products–something many consumers and businesses rely on daily. Yet another great feature is the openness of applications. Google provides the Android marketplace for those who want to public and/or sell apps through it, but there’s nothing stopping a developer from distributing apps on their own, without Google’s permission. Nearly all of these abilities give Google a huge advantage over Apple who, in some ways, is still stuck in the primarily proprietary ways reminiscent of the early ’90s. Oh, and what about multitasking? Google does it, iPhones and Blackberrys don’t. Big mistake for the latter?

But even Google doesn’t have all of the advantages. Blackberry has a great push-based email system that easily rivals corporate Exchange technology. Apple still has the most apps at 100,000 and growing while Google has only 20,000 at this point (although the Marketplace was only started in February of 2009). Still, one must ask–after you get past the first 10,000 or so apps, how many of Apple’s remaining 90,000 get downloaded regularly? Hmm.

Palm

Palm released two phones this year on Sprint’s network, and while the technology is pretty cool and reportedly works pretty well, I think Palm’s biggest accomplishment is the slick webOS. I’ve played with this new system quite a bit and find it super easy to use, packed with great and powerful features (like Synergy), and a lot of fun to use. This is still very much a first release OS, so we’re still seeing some performance issues from time to time. Android phones and the iPhone still feel smoother and faster. Still, since we’ve never seen webOS on anything but Palm hardware, it’s hard to say if this is a hardware or software issue. To Palm’s credit, the webOS updates since 1.0 have fixed many of these minor problems. webOS is a big multitasker as well. The “card-view” makes switching back and forth a breeze and closing a running app takes a simple flick. This is a major feature Palm has that nobody else does. Just because other OS’s run multiple apps at a time, doesn’t mean that switching between them is easy. Even Android doesn’t do this as well as Palm phones, and of course the iPhone just doesn’t. Palm has always included physical keyboards on its smartphones, and that’s one thing they’ve definitely got right from the hardware perspective. The sliding Pre is so-so, but the Pixi seems like a nice compromise. Still, I wish we could get a good size screen plus physical keyboard, minus the awkwardness of the Droid’s horizontal keyboard. This is a hard feat to accomplish in any case.

It’s difficult to speculate what will happen to Palm in 2010. They’re still having trouble turning a decent profit, but that may have something to do with their exclusivity details with Sprint. I don’t know many people who still use Sprint service, but obviously there are exceptions. One thing that may help save Palm is to get the Pixi going on Verizon’s rock-solid network. Another option would be to license their Linux-based webOS platform to other manufacturers like HTC, Motorola, Samsung, and LG. I’ve almost always been impressed with LG phones, so maybe they’d have some great success with smartphones. It all remains to be seen. The final problem with Palm is the exceptionally limited application and support base. There are still very few apps in the Palm catalog, so until a wider selection is available, it may be difficult to market the phones to hardcore users.

RIM (Blackberry)

I like Blackberry phones. They’re fast, robust, and capable devices and running on the right network, provide a great data-based experience in addition to excellent voice services. I remember when Blackberrys were no more than a glorified, Internet-connected PDA, so the added phone makes a big difference. Still, most of their phones are not touchscreen-based and requires navigating with a roller-ball, keyboard, and a few other miscellaneous buttons. The exceptions to the rule are obviously the Storm and Storm 2 running on the Verizon network. I haven’t played with these extensively, but many users said the Storm was good and the Storm 2 really makes up for the first edition’s shortcomings. The main caveat I see with those two is the lack of physical keyboard–a feature that I generally miss on virtual-keyboard based devices.

Blackberry is the darling of the Enterprise, so I predict their marketshare will grow or at the very least remain steady. Blackberry OS 5.0 also seems like a potential game-changer with many users snatching it up as quickly as possible. It’s a bit hard to guess where things may go, but the status quo hasn’t changed much since it’s introduction. I’m expecting them to plod along with business as usual.

Wrap Up

We already know Apple is planning a big mobile event for January 26th, so this will give us the first clue of 2010 about new iPhones, iPhone OS, and perhaps an “iPad” tablet (which, if they really do introduce it) I sincerely believe will be a huge failure. I haven’t yet seen a tablet I really liked running any OS from any manufacturer. I feel confident that even though some folks may say “wow, look at that sweet Apple tablet,” most (including myself) will just keep walking.

Google will be the theme of the year. Year of the Google phone. And I didn’t even mention Microsoft, so I’ll do that here. Windows Mobile 7 is coming later this year and it may really change the game. As much flak as Microsoft gets from a lot of people, they really do know how to write good software. Windows 7, Windows Server 2008, and the latest Office products have all been hits. I’m expecting Windows Mobile 7 to be the same game. (i.e. super nice, light, fast, robust, etc). Keep your eye out for that one.

What are your predictions? Is this the year Apple dominates the world? Or maybe the rise of Symbian in the United States? The comment box is open, so have at it!